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Oz housing outlook 2014-2017

Every year we receive heaps of email letting us know about the latest data for the Australian housing market – below is a snapshot of a report I received today – enjoy the read , the QBE / BIS Shrapnel “Australian Housing Outlook 2014 – 2017”. 

Here is what they had to say. 

Housing price growth will slow from it’s dizzy growth over the past 18 months (no surprise there!). However, eastern states will continue to see significant growth. Brisbane 17%, Sydney 9%, Melbourne 5%, Adelaide 6% and Hobart 6%. Lagging somewhat behind will be Darwin 2%, Canberra 1% and Perth is expected to a decline of about 2% over the period. 

Nationally, economic growth is expected to remain muted. Consequently, there seems to be no significant impetus for the RBA to rush to the levers and raise interest rates. Interest rates are expected to increase by a modest 1% over the forecast period. 

There remains some difficulty in accurately determining the various sectors comprising the property market, as the ABS data on first home buyers is known to be highly unreliable. However, it is clear that the number of first home buyers continues to dwindle (although possibly not as significantly as some may believe). By far the most active market segment at present is investors. This is expected to continue, although their numbers will gradually diminish as rising property prices and rising interest rates affect rental yields. 

The full report can be read on the QBE LMI website athttp://www.qbelmi.com/pg-Publications-and-Presentations.seo . Towards the end of this report you will see a series of charts that compare BIS Shrapnel’s predictions to the outcomes. It is remarkable how accurate they have been over a relatively long period of time. 

Posted on November 3, 2014

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