Could Coronavirus be the black swan of 2020 ?
We could be facing a recession … for most it will be bad… for those with an abundant mindset and a solid vision – it could be really good.
Many of the most iconic companies were forged and shaped in difficult times – vis-à-vis
- Cisco – took advantage of black Monday in 1987.
- Google and PayPal negotiated their journey after the Dotcom crash
- Airbnb , Square and Stripe were founded in the GFC.
Challenges focus the mind – and provide fertile ground for creativity and innovation .
Taleb – who wrote the book “black swan” talks about the effect of the black swan to different people ….
“what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to “avoid being the turkey” by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to “turn the Black Swans white”
- Have enough cash! Have enough access to money to ride out the tough period (toilet paper?) – and have enough access to money or “currency” to make the great acquisitions. Remember the core principal that my grandmother taught me – buy low and sell high!!! Seize opportunities when your competitors have been battered! In a downturn – revenue and cash levels fall faster in a recession
- Be prepared to change – be adaptable – as Darwin said – those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent , but the most adaptable to change.
- Face facts – False optimism can be destructive – face the facts and take decisive action. Look at your overheads, Capex and budgets and reassess.
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